DeFi Token Valuation
Protocol revenue only matters to a token holder if a mechanism routes it to them. Every multiple here is paired with that check, valued on circulating market cap, and annualized from a trailing window rather than a single day of fees.
Snapshot 2026-09-14 · fees and unlocks from DefiLlama, price and supply from CoinGecko
Revenue reaches holders today. Multiples carry a claim, so it prices like equity.
Capture is live but young, capped, or governance-revocable. Discount the multiple.
No mechanism routes revenue to the token. Price is a reference, not a claim.
Net holder yield
What holders are paid, minus the assumed sell-through on next year of unlocks and emissions, over circulating market cap. Negative means dilution outruns the payout.
Outcome range
One row per token, both cases measured from 0% — today's price. Blue runs right for the bull case, red runs left for the bear case; they are two independent returns, not the two ends of one distribution. The blue leg follows your peak-fee slider; the red leg is measured, not assumed — 80% of the worst quarter this protocol actually had. A blue bar that also points left means even the optimistic case loses money. These are brackets, not a confidence interval — the bull case compounds two separate 90th-percentile outcomes, so its joint likelihood is far below 10%.
- Bull case
- Bear case
Where the bull case comes from
The same bull number above, split into the three things that produce it. Return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag, so a segment running right adds to the return and one running left takes it away. The axis is logarithmic — that is what makes the segments add up to the total exactly rather than approximately — and the ticks are relabelled as multiples, so uneven spacing is expected. Read it for the reason, not the size: the tokens at the top of this list are mostly there because their fees sit far below their own last-cycle peak, which is a statement about how far they fell, not about quality.
- Fee torque
- Multiple re-rate
- Supply drag
Screener
Price is decomposed, not forecast: return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag. That is an identity — the only judgement is the fee assumption, so it is yours to set per token.
| Token | Next-cycle fees, vs last peak | Re-rate ÷ drag | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HYPE Hyperliquid Cash-flow | $17.9B | 32.7x | 3.1%→-1.3% | 80% 0%= 143% of current500% | 0.75x0.81/1.07 | 74% 2x at 148% | 8% -87% $86.46 |
UNIB Uniswap Transitional | $4.2B | 42.6x | 2.3%→0.4% | 80% 0%= 82% of current500% | 1.34x1.38/1.03 | 73% 2x at 147% | 9% -68% $7.18 |
AAVEC Aave Non-accruing | $2.0B | 77.3x | 1.3%→0.9% | 80% 0%= 247% of current500% | 0.70x0.70/1.01 | 46% 2x at 93% | 72% -72% $220 |
PUMPC Pump.fun Cash-flow | $1.7B | 7.5x | 13.3%→2.7% | 80% 0%= 74% of current500% | 1.07x1.26/1.18 | 101% 2x at 202% | -21% -81% $0.00295 |
MORPHOC Morpho Non-accruing | $1.5B | 104.6x | 1.0%→-10.3% | 80% 0%= 99% of current500% | 0.85x1.01/1.19 | 95% 2x at 190% | -16% -92% $1.83 |
SKYB Sky Cash-flow | $1.5B | 62.1x | 1.6%→1.4% | 80% 0%= 102% of current500% | 1.01x1.02/1.00 | 77% 2x at 154% | 4% -46% $0.0655 |
LIGHTERC Lighter Transitional | $1.1B | 39.2x | 2.5%→-25.2% | 80% 0%= 263% of current500% | 0.46x0.68/1.46 | 66% 2x at 131% | 22% -95% $5.32 |
JUP Jupiter Cash-flow | $790.6M | 24.5x | 4.1%→4.1% | 80% 0%= 313% of current500% | 0.91x0.91/1.00 | 28% 2x at 56% | 185% -75% $0.6887 |
CAKE PancakeSwap Cash-flow | $745.3M | 19.8x | 5.1%→3.6% | 80% 0%= 226% of current500% | 0.93x0.95/1.02 | 38% 2x at 76% | 110% -84% $4.90 |
AERO Aerodrome Cash-flow | $557.6M | 6.3x | 15.9%→1.4% | 80% 0%= 258% of current500% | 0.77x0.96/1.24 | 40% 2x at 80% | 100% -72% $1.12 |
PENDLE Pendle Cash-flow | $415.9M | 59.8x | 1.7%→-0.3% | 80% 0%= 441% of current500% | 0.52x0.54/1.03 | 35% 2x at 70% | 130% -81% $5.54 |
LDOC Lido Transitional | $307.0M | 30.7x | 3.3%→2.8% | 80% 0%= 180% of current500% | 1.16x1.17/1.01 | 38% 2x at 76% | 110% -43% $0.7692 |